Macrosavant

Research desk · Est. 2026 · Pre-launch

Margin of safety, in pixels and in portfolios.

MacroSavant is a research desk for value-oriented macro investors. We read the world top-down — yields, currencies, commodities, supply chains, capital flows — and translate structural shifts into disciplined, rules-based portfolio decisions. Numerate work, sourced and footnoted.

Theses
3
Watchlist
128
Cadence
Weekly
01 / Manifesto

What we are, and what we are not.

A short statement of intent so subscribers know what they are signing up for.

We treat macro as gravity, not weather. Yields, currencies, commodities, capital flows — these bend every position whether the operator notices or not. Our work begins where the headline stops: with the fuel cycle, the procurement contract, the jurisdiction file, the financing runway. Numbers, dates, sources.

We publish thinking. We build tools. We measure ourselves by whether subscribers compound capital.

Our core convictions are three. They are weighted, deliberately. Reshoring of energy and supply chains, mobilization of critical minerals, and the long structural deficit in uranium and hard assets — these are the through-lines for everything we publish. Our default is patience. Our cadence is weekly notes, quarterly flagships, and an annual yearbook. We do not chase headlines. If a story lacks a structural read-through, we do not cover it.

What we are not: not a day-trading service, not a hot-tip newsletter, not a robo-advisor, not crypto-maximalist, not crypto-dismissive. We are a research desk. The dashboard comes later.

02 / Theses

Three theses. Weighted. Through-lines.

The weights below are not aspirational. They are the same weights our quantitative weekly pipeline (ResearchBot) uses to score 128 candidates inside its scoring engine. Brand and engine align by design.

35 Thesis 1 · Weight

US Maritime & Financial Strangulation

Energy security and commodity supply chains are being weaponized. Domestic US energy, oil, gas, tanker, refining, and shipping assets benefit from import independence and sanctions enforcement. We track the policy posture, the bottlenecks, and the named beneficiaries.

30 Thesis 2 · Weight

Critical Minerals Mobilization

Western nations are scrambling to secure copper, lithium, rare earths, nickel, and cobalt supply chains outside Chinese control. Tier 1 jurisdictions with permitted deposits benefit. Tier 2 jurisdictions need a sharper screen. We grade the file.

35 Thesis 3 · Weight

Uranium & Hard-Asset Scarcity

Nuclear renaissance, monetary debasement hedging, structural supply deficits in uranium, gold, and silver. Western-aligned producers are positioned for repricing as deficits compound through 2030. The standoff is the story.

03 / Research

First on the desk.

We publish flagships and supplementary notes on Substack, in long form, structured Exposition / Analysis / Prediction. Below is what is in production for the inaugural cohort.

01

Yellowcake Prix Fixe

A walk through the uranium standoff — suppliers withholding, buyers drawing inventory, traders arbitraging the gap. Spot prices between $63 and $83 per pound through 2025 reflect the tension, not fundamentals. Where the next leg of price discovery sits, and who benefits.

Editing · Q2 2026
02

The Great American Resurgence

The macro flagship. Reshoring as a regime shift rather than a trade. Capex cycles, energy independence, the maritime build-out, and the named exposures across oil & gas, refining, midstream, and shipping. Long-form, sourced, with explicit base case and downside.

Drafting · Q3 2026
03

Capitalizing on the American Resurgence

Companion piece to the macro flagship. The execution layer — tickers, sleeves, jurisdiction notes, governance flags. Where margin of safety actually lives, and where it doesn’t.

Outlined · Q3 2026
04

Uranium Flagship

The fuel-cycle deep dive. Conversion, enrichment, fabrication, and the producer screen. Incentive prices, contract structure, and the gap between paper supply and pounds in canisters.

Outlined · Q3 2026
04 / Desk

A desk of one, by design.

MacroSavant is solo-operated and AI-leveraged. The founder reviews every piece. Every claim that can carry a number does.

Ian runs the desk. The model is solo founder, AI-maximalist: agents and AI-assisted tooling do the leverage, the founder reviews every line that ships. There is no human translator, no human engineer, and no intern army — the discipline is in the workflow.

The work is grounded in three convictions: that energy and supply chains are being repriced, that critical minerals will be the strategic story of the decade, and that uranium and hard assets are entering a multi-year structural deficit. We publish what we believe; we own the calls.

The dashboard, MacroMonitor, is in build. It will surface the weekly research pipeline, a macro overview, and a portfolio overlay layer for Premium subscribers. Until then, the newsletter is the offering — and the offering is the long, slow accumulation of evidence.

05 / Frequent questions

Plain answers.

If something is not answered here, the comment section on Substack is the right place to ask.

Is MacroSavant investment advice?

No. Everything we publish is informational. We are not a registered investment advisor and we do not manage outside capital. Subscribers should consult a qualified professional before acting. Disclaimers run with every piece.

What does subscribing get me?

The newsletter, free, on Substack — weekly notes plus the long-form flagships as they ship. A paid tier launches alongside the dashboard later this year; until then, free is the only tier. We will not silently move your subscription to a paid plan.

How is this different from a typical macro newsletter?

Two ways. First, we treat the work as research, not commentary — long-form, sourced, structured Exposition / Analysis / Prediction. Second, the editorial brand and the engine are aligned: the same three weighted theses (35 / 30 / 35) that drive the writing also drive ResearchBot, our weekly Python pipeline that scores 128 resource-sector candidates against nine hard gates.

When does the MacroMonitor dashboard go live?

The MVP is targeted for late 2026, in private beta first, then public. Subscribers on the newsletter at that point are first in line for invitations. The roadmap is published; we ship slowly on purpose.

Do you cover crypto?

Selectively. We are not crypto-maximalist and not crypto-dismissive. RWA tokenization, onchain Treasuries, and the supply-chain edge of the stack are in scope. Speculative altcoins are not.

Can I unsubscribe at any time?

Yes, instantly, from any email. Your address is held by Substack and never sold or shared. We do not send marketing outside the newsletter itself.